2026 brings challenges as consumers tighten purse strings

How to maximise value recapture through reverse logistics

With strong holiday spending and the growth of online shopping comes a rise in the importance of managing your returns process with a reverse logistics strategy. While roughly 10% of goods purchased in brick-and-mortar shops are returned, that figure is expected to jump to almost 20% for online sales. Clothing and shoes are the most frequently returned items.

Reverse logistics is more than just returns management. It is a way for retailers to create new value at the back end of their supply chains. This includes the collection, inspection, processing and redistribution of goods, which can be:

• Reconditioned and resold as “like-new” or “certified refurbished”
• Redistributed through secondary market channels such as plug socket shops, discount retailers or online marketplaces
• Disassembled to recover usable components for repairs or manufacturing
• Donated to charities and non-profits
• Recycled for reuse of materials

Retailers who identify the most cost-effective way to handle their returned goods not only maximise value recapture—with this circular approach, they can also reduce their environmental footprint and further their sustainability goals.

Despite strong holiday season, U.S. retail spending to decline in 2026

U.S. retail spending over the holidays was up over 4% year over year. With inflation factored in, it was up only 2.2% compared to last year. Although online spending accounted for less than 24% of all retail spending since 1 November, it rose by 7.8%. Electronics was the top growth category, up nearly 6% according to data from Visa, as consumers upgraded their devices for the AI era. Apparel and footwear were also strong performers, up over 5%. The do-it-yourself industry was down roughly 1%, due to a drop in spending on building materials.

In 2026, retail spending is projected to decline 1-2%. Consumers are expected to remain cautious as they weigh affordability against discretionary income. Driven by a softening labour market and slower wage gains, this will have a larger impact on durable goods than on perishables.

The softening 2026 outlook should inform strategies for replenishment. Retailers can offset lost income from thriftier shoppers by prioritising agility, minimising inventory risk and controlling freight cost. The following may help:

• Use holiday sales data to guide SKU priorities
• Pay attention to fast-moving essentials
• Shorten replenishment cycles and use real-time sales data to adapt quickly
• Keep inventory lean by taking advantage of item-level visibility and centralised purchase-order management
• Position inventory for e-commerce growth
• Opt for freight consolidation and flexible delivery schedules to kerb costs

Ocean delivery rates declining

Container delivering rates to the United States are declining on both coasts due to fewer deliveries from Europe and Asia and overcapacity in the global container fleet.

Imported cargo is expected to see its first month-over-month increase in six months in January, due to the typical surge before Asian manufacturers shut down for the Lunar New Year holidays but will still be down more than 10% year over year. Double-digit declines in cargo versus last year are expected to be the average through April 2026. For the year, Moody’s Ratings forecasts a 2% drop in U.S. container volumes in 2026 while global ocean demand is expected to see a modest 1-2% growth.

Retailers gear up for trucking RFPs in Q1

The expected decline in retail spending as well as higher prices due to tariffs will also affect RFPs for domestic freight. Cost control and flexibility are top priorities. Retailers are approaching bids with a sharper focus on adaptable solutions. Some are favouring shorter contract cycles or seasonal agreements to manage uncertainty. Backup transportation strategies will be increasingly important as capacity tightens and tender rejections increase; reacting quickly will determine market success.

Omnichannel strategies and e-commerce growth continue to shape RFP requirements. Retailers are also looking for partners who can balance affordability with service reliability—shifting from ultra-fast delivery promises to cost-effective, predictable performance. Visibility and predictive analytics remain critical differentiators.

See this blog post for research-backed strategies to help with your RFP.

Latest tariff updates

USMCA review update

The six-year review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which will reshape trade relations between its members, is under way. While the administration hasn’t committed to its renewal, it has made it clear that it favours nearshoring within North America. A decision is expected by July 2026.

Mexico tariffs on goods made in China and other Asian countries

On 1 January, Mexico imposed tariffs of 5%-50% on certain furniture, appliances, clothing, home appliances, office supplies, cosmetics, personal hygiene products and more. The move supports “Plan Mexico” goals to add 350,000 jobs, cut the trade deficit with China and boost local content by 15% by 2030.

Canada steel tariffs

Canada imposed a 50% surtax on certain steel imports from countries with which it hasn't got free trade agreements effective 26 December 2025. The measure specifically targets Chinese overproduction.

U.S. furniture tariff delay

The U.S. administration postponed tariff hikes on furniture and cabinets to 1 January 2027. Rates are planned to rise to 30% for furniture and 50% for cabinets.

U.S. Supreme Court tariff decision

A ruling on whether the administration can levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is now expected this month, possibly as early as Friday, 9 January, when the Court issues its first round of rulings for the new year. If overturned, importers may receive refunds, though expectations for a quick refund process are low.

For more details, go to the Trade Policy & Customs section of this report.

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